Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Under Scrutiny as Grayscale Predicts Accelerated Bull Run

In a groundbreaking analysis, Grayscale Investments has challenged one of Bitcoin's most deeply entrenched market paradigms—the four-year price cycle tied to halving events. The asset manager's latest report suggests that Bitcoin could break from this historical pattern as early as 2026, potentially accelerating its next major bull market ahead of the traditional schedule. This bold thesis arrives amidst significant macroeconomic shifts, most notably a substantial $13.5 billion liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve, marking its largest such move in recent memory. Grayscale argues that these powerful external monetary forces, combined with Bitcoin's growing maturation as an institutional asset, may decouple its price action from the halving-centric timeline that has dictated market psychology for over a decade. The report implies that the convergence of expansive fiscal policy, increasing adoption, and evolving market structure could fuel a price surge independent of the 2024 halving's aftermath, projecting a scenario where Bitcoin enters a new valuation phase sooner than historical models predict. This perspective invites market participants to reconsider long-held assumptions, positioning Bitcoin not merely as a cyclical commodity but as a forward-looking macro asset increasingly responsive to global liquidity conditions. As of December 2025, this analysis provides a provocative framework for understanding Bitcoin's potential trajectory in an era of unconventional monetary policy.

Grayscale Challenges Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Theory Amid $13.5B Fed Liquidity Injection

Grayscale's latest report posits a radical departure from Bitcoin's established four-year price cycle, traditionally anchored to halving events. The asset manager suggests BTC could breach historical patterns as early as 2026, potentially accelerating its next bull run ahead of schedule.

Market dynamics appear to support this thesis. The Federal Reserve's $13.5 billion liquidity injection - the largest since COVID-era stimulus - creates fertile ground for risk assets. Concurrent progress in US crypto regulation and anticipated rate cuts further bolster the bullish case.

This paradigm shift comes at a curious juncture. bitcoin remains stubbornly unresponsive to the Fed's liquidity surge, trading sideways despite the capital influx that typically fuels crypto rallies. The divergence highlights growing institutional influence on BTC's price discovery mechanisms.

Europe Intensifies Crackdown on Crypto Privacy Tools Amid Surging Surveillance Demands

European authorities have escalated their campaign against anonymous cryptocurrency transactions, shuttering a major mixing service while reporting unprecedented law enforcement requests for exchange data. The coordinated strike against Cryptomixer - which processed €1.3 billion in Bitcoin since 2016 - marks a pivotal moment in the continent's financial surveillance regime.

German and Swiss officials seized €25 million in Bitcoin and 12TB of operational data during the late-November operation. The platform's technical sophistication, using randomized pooling periods to obscure transaction trails, had made it a favorite among ransomware operators and darknet markets. 'This isn't just about seizing assets,' noted a Europol spokesperson, 'It's about dismantling the infrastructure of financial anonymity.'

The enforcement surge coincides with Coinbase's latest transparency report showing European agencies now lead global crypto data requests. Analysts observe this reflects Brussels' hardening stance following last year's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which established strict transaction monitoring requirements for VIRTUAL asset service providers.

Texas Pioneers State-Level Bitcoin Investment with $5M ETF Purchase

Texas has made history as the first U.S. state to allocate public funds to Bitcoin, acquiring $5 million worth of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) through its newly established Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The MOVE signals a strategic shift in governmental crypto policy amid growing institutional adoption.

The investment framework was enabled by Senate Bill 21, which created a dedicated fund managed by the Texas Treasury Safekeeping Trust Company. The legislation grants the state comptroller authority to buy, hold, and sell Bitcoin using legislatively approved funds—a power that could expand if this pilot proves successful.

As the dominant hub for U.S. Bitcoin mining, Texas leverages its cheap energy and favorable regulatory environment. This ETF purchase marks the state's first direct crypto exposure, though the position won't convert to physical Bitcoin until November 2025 at earliest.

Strategy Bolsters Reserves with $1.4B Cash Buffer Amid Bitcoin Accumulation

Strategy, a Bitcoin-focused treasury firm, has fortified its financial position by establishing a $1.44 billion cash reserve while simultaneously expanding its BTC holdings to 650,000 coins. The move comes as Bitcoin's price retreats from October highs, prompting the company to revise its 2025 financial targets downward.

The newly created USD reserve will service preferred stock dividends and debt obligations, funded through common stock sales under the company's at-the-market offering program. CEO Phong Le emphasized the reserve's strategic importance, noting it currently covers 21 months of dividend payments with plans to extend coverage to 24 months.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor framed the reserve as a defensive measure against market volatility, calling it a critical step in the company's evolution toward becoming the premier digital credit issuer. Between November 17-30, Strategy acquired an additional 130 BTC for $11.7 million, averaging $89,000 per coin.

Bitcoin Mining Industry Faces Worst Crisis in 15 Years as Profitability Plummets

The Bitcoin mining sector is grappling with its most severe financial strain since the cryptocurrency's inception. A brutal combination of price declines and record-high mining difficulty has pushed operational viability to the brink. Bitcoin's value has retreated from its October peak NEAR $126,000 to below $80,000 in November, while computational demands on the network continue escalating.

Mining economics have deteriorated to historic lows. The hashprice metric—reflecting earnings per unit of computing power—has collapsed from $55 to $35 per petahash/second, marking the lowest levels ever recorded. Current daily earnings of $38.3 PH/s hover perilously close to the $40 PH/s shutdown threshold, forcing operators to reassess their survival strategies.

Equipment payback periods now exceed 1,200 days—triple the duration seen during previous market cycles. This unprecedented capital recovery timeline threatens to reshape the industry's infrastructure landscape, potentially triggering widespread consolidation among mining operations.

Bank of America Endorses Bitcoin with 1-4% Portfolio Allocation for Wealthy Clients

Bank of America has made a decisive move into cryptocurrency, advising high-net-worth clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets. The recommendation marks a strategic shift for the institution, aligning it with Wall Street peers like BlackRock and Fidelity in embracing Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.

Starting January 2026, the bank’s Merrill and Private Bank platforms will offer access to four Bitcoin ETFs: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF. This rollout empowers over 15,000 wealth advisors to recommend crypto products—a first in the bank’s history.

The decision reflects growing institutional confidence following similar moves by Morgan Stanley and others. 'This isn’t speculation—it’s infrastructure,' remarked one analyst, noting the tacit endorsement from traditional finance heavyweights.